Recession Coming? Timing Investment Decisions to Predictions is a Loser’s Game

Buy and hold regularly outperforms guessing the timing of the next recession. Align with companies that can ride out the storms.

Tagged: Market Commentary Portfolio Strategy

Transcript

Chris Davis:		We would predict with a 100% certainty that we're going to have a recession, right? We don't know when, and it's crazy to invest thinking that that is predictable. What you need to do is own businesses that can roll through those periods that are going to come and they're going to be unexpected. But let's just imagine for the sake of argument that you had a perfect crystal ball and you just got out of the market before every recession, you got in after the all clear whistle was blown.
		Even then it's, you lagged by 70 basis points per year since 1928, even if you had a perfect crystal ball. We think this is really a loser's game. It just is parlor talk, it's what keeps the lights on it at CNBC and in papers, it's a prediction game, but it's a parlor game. It doesn't bear into our thinking at all. We want to own companies that are resilient, will ride through recessions. We don't want to try to play this game of sector rotation that we think, as I say, even if you got it right, it didn't help.